Why Bayern / Bremen / Hamburg / … will win the Title
By: Jan | January 9th, 2008Why Bayern Munich will win the title
If Bayern’s rivals had plans to beat them to the title, they should have done so in the first half of the season. Because in the second half of the season, Bayern have the matchday schedule on their side in a big way:
Bayern – Bremen
Bayern – HSV
Schalke – Bayern
Bayern – Leverkusen
Bayern – Stuttgart
Those are the big potential six pointers. And Bayern have home advantage in all but one of them. And here are the final three and potentially decisive matches for Bayern: Bielefeld, Duisburg, Hertha. Not the biggest stumbling blocks, especially considering that Bremen have to face Hamburg, Hanover and Leverkusen at the same time…
Why Werder Bremen will win the title
Because Bayern have a lame duck as a coach. Because Bayern’s game has been figured out by now and they will be held to even more 0-0 draws. More importantly, because it’s statistically impossible to continuously have as many injury problems as Bremen had in the first half of the season. Thus, Bremen will be even stronger in the second half of the season and will cruise to the title. It never hurts to point out that they have the best player of the Bundesliga in their ranks as well.
Why Hamburg will win the title
Quite simple: Hamburg have been the best team in the Bundesliga. If you compile a Bundesliga table from all games played in the Bundesliga since Huub Stevens took over as Hamburg coach you’d get the following:
1. Bayern Munich 62pts (+26gd)
2. Hamburger SV 62pts (+23gd)
3. Werder Bremen 60pts (+24gd)
OK, so Bayern lead this ranking by a mere three goals. They needed €70 million for those three goals, while Hamburg have been playing with virtually the same squad all the time. More importantly though, Hamburg had it the worst when it came to badly designed match schedules with less than 48 hours of rest between matches; twice after a UEFA Cup match and once after an international break. They lost two out of three. Now add one or two or even six points from those matches and you get a much more accurate picture of who is boss in the Bundesliga and who will win the title. Plus: they’ve got the hottest young striker in the world in their youth ranks – just in case.
Why Bayer Leverkusen will win the title
Why Schalke will win the title
Because there is some form of eternal justice in this world for those who choked one too many times. But then again, Friedrich Nietzsche and Uli Hoeness dismantled this concept a long time ago in their own ways; philosophically and in the Bundesliga.
Some Related Bundesliga Posts:
Category: Bundesliga
Comments
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Schalke and Leverkusen have the prettiest goalkeepers?
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I think both Bremen and Hamburg leap over Bayern in the table by season’s end, although I am hedging a little about HSV due to the ongoing situations with vDV and Huub. I think that Bremen really are the class of the league and the can’t *possibly* have any more injuries than they had in the first half.
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Abby; they probably have the best goalkeepers as well?
Maybe Schalke could yet play a part in the title race. Seven points behind the lead is also the gap between Barcelona and Madrid in La Liga, and Barca hasn’t given up yet either. There are plenty of little details Mirko Slomka could optimise. Schalke lost only two games but drew eight. If they can stop drawing 50% of their matches, they’ll be able to play a good role.
Leverkusen’s master plan sees them competing for the title in 2009/2010, so it might be a bit early for all those youngsters. Though, Stuttgart came from fourth position and a four point deficit to claim the title with a bunch of youngsters last year, so Leverkusen might try and do the same.:-)
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Chris: I’m not at all worried about Huub and vdV. There are no conflicts between Stevens and the team or the management, different to Hitzfeld at Bayern. He leaves for personal reasons and everybody understands and accepts that. Thus he won’t have a problem coaching the team with his usual authority. And vdV has pulled off worse things than telling people how he loves Juve, like posing with a Valencia jersey and faking a back injury. And he still played one of his most impressive half seasons for Hamburg. I think he’s also ambitious enough to want to crown his Hamburg days with some silverware.
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I have faith that Huub will pull a “win one for the Gipper!” speech sometime during the second half. I have to admit, despite (or maybe because of), this RvdV saga, I’m increasingly becoming a fan of HSV. Maybe I’ll be able to fully throw myself on the bandwagon once RvdV moves to Juventus, in Spain.
(And is Chrisantus the striker?)
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They are, aren’t they? So I’m not *entirely* shallow. Just mostly.
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Jan, you have more faith than I do. I see your point that Huub is not going to be a distraction, but what I meant was the search for a new manager may be a distraction. Now that I am back from holiday, I am going to try to tackle the subjects of replacing vDV and Huub. B-t-w, still searching the media for possible Huub successors to no avail. Great post. I’ve got to get back to writing. Angela and Abby are putting me to shame.
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chris: yup I was referring to Chrisantus.:-)
The other Chris: yeah I haven’t heard any rumours about a possible Huub successor either. All that is available is highly speculative. But the fact that Bayern are looking for a coach and have several Dutch coaches on their radar as well, won’t make things any easier I guess.:-)
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