The Big Bundesliga Season Finale Preview

By: Jan | May 18th, 2007

Schalke 04 - German Champion 1958 - From left to right: Koslowski, Laszig, Klodt and manager Frühwirt Well, this is actually just a normal Bundesliga Season Finale Preview without the big. I just put that word in the title in the hope to attract some extra readers. The big finale has probably already been last weekend. VfB Stuttgart took over the top spot, Alemannia Aachen and Mainz 05 were relegated and Leverkusen secured the last UEFA Cup place. So is there really anything left worth caring about or should we rather just send our congratulations to Stuttgart and move on to the next season and wonder what type of players Bayern Munich’s 100 million Euros can buy?

First of all despite being the unlikely outcome Schalke 04 can still win the title. The math behind it is simple:

Schalke 04 wins at home against Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart loses at home against Energie Cottbus. Result: Schalke 04 is the new German champion.
Stuttgart draws against Cottbus and Schalke 04 wins their game 4:0 or with a similar goal difference. Result: Schalke 04 is the new German champion.
Everything else: Stuttgart is the new German champion.

Schalke’s manager Mirko Slomka looks set to try and move his team in the position to put some pressure on Stuttgart. After declaring that “we ridicule ourselves if we still believe in the title” earlier this week, he is now a bit more optimistic and says “I am a fighter and we will try everything possible.” and “This Bundesliga season has been crazy enough, why shouldn’t it end on a crazy note?”. Meanwhile Armin Veh is aware of a possible Cottbus thread: “It’s a very uncomfortable rival (Cottbus). We have to remain relaxed and we must not cramp up. I know it’s a cliche, but what counts is the final standings. We still don’t have the title in our hands.”

Both Bielefeld and Cottbus also look set to offer a fair fight. Cottbus manager Petrik Sander: “The championship should be decided in a fair way. If they want to win the title, they have to beat us in a big battle. We are fully aware of our special role. Every player knows about his responsibility. We have won many admirers and will not lose them this weekend.” Bielefeld is on a high anyway after four consecutive wins and Bielefeld’s manager Ernst Middendorp is keen to make it five: “We’re travelling there to be victorious.” And just on a sidenote: a win against Schalke would make it 45 points for Bielefeld giving them an outside chance to reach the UEFA Intertoto Cup (UI Cup for short).

And that’s the only other decision that is still up in the air. The UEFA Intertoto Cup promises you a chance to play in the UEFA Cup and as such looks like the ideal consolation prize for teams like Hamburg (42/2) or Dortmund (44/-1) whose season probably didn’t develop as expected. Other teams in the race include Hannover (44/-6), Bochum (42/-3), Bielefeld (42/-1) and with a rather theoretical chance Berlin (41/-6) and Cottbus (41/-10). So what do the numbers in brackets mean? It’s the clubs current number of points and their goal difference statistic. And depending on how the matchday develops the goal difference statistics of every team might become quite important. Here are the fixtures and a short insight on what has to happen to get the team a ticket to Europe:

Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund needs to win to secure their UI Cup spot. Their leading goal scorer Alexander Frei will be out injured though.
Hannover 96 - 1. FC Nürnberg: Hannover has to win and hope that Dortmund draws or loses in Leverkusen. Otherwise Hannover would need to win by a very high margin since their goal difference is quite poor.
Hamburger SV - Alemannia Aachen: Hamburg needs to win and hope that both Dortmund and Hannover don’t manage anything better than a draw.
Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld: Bielefeld needs to win and hope that both Dortmund and Hannover don’t manage anything better than a draw. Should Hamburg win their match they will also need to win by a high margin since Hamburg has the better goal difference.
Borussia Mönchengladbach - VfL Bochum: Bochum needs to win and hope that both Dortmund and Hannover slip. Should Hamburg and Bielefeld win their games, they will also need to win by a very high margin since Hamburg and Bielefeld have the better goal difference.
Eintracht Frankfurt - Hertha BSC Berlin: Berlin needs to win and score a lot of goals and then hope for the best.
VfB Stuttgart - Energie Cottbus: Cottbus needs to win and score an awful lot of goals and then hope for the best.

My personal verdict is Hamburg. This prediction includes a couple of educated guesses and a good bit of wishful thinking. I’m not necessarily a big HSV supporter but a fan of Rafael van der Vaart and I would like to see him get the chance to play in Europe. To make this a reality Hannover has to lose or draw against Nuremburg (1. FC Nürnberg) which I think could be a likely outcome. Nuremburg will play in the German cup final in about a week. I bet they don’t want to go into the final with a negative result on their backs so they should be properly motivated. Leverkusen is a pretty strong team but has no longer anything to play for. Still it’s also a farewell match for players like Juan or Butt who will leave the club in the summer and they have home advantage. So Leverkusen might not be desperate to just give away the game to Dortmund who also miss one of their best players (Alexander Frei). This leaves room for Hamburg who play against Aachen. Aachen has been relegated last week and doesn’t look like to have any more ambitions for this season.

I snubbed two important clubs, namely Bremen and Bayern. Bremen has a chance to reach the second place should they win their game against Wolfsburg and should Schalke lose or draw their match against Bielefeld. Bayern will be more interested to put up a little show for their fans and for Mehmet Scholl who will play his last official game for Bayern Munich / in his career.

P.S.: Those guys on the photo are the last Schalke 04 players to win the German championship back in 1958.