Champions League: Ifs and thens

By: Jan | November 6th, 2007

Schalke - Chelsea One half of this week’s Champions League matchday is over, though since Stuttgart is basically dead already, I can start sketching out my favourite scenarios for the final two matchdays. And I’ll start off with one of the two surprise teams of tonight - the positive surprise.

Schalke 04 0-0 Chelsea

Everybody and their dog and Schalke’s president had recently spelled out the words “you’re doomed” for Mirko Slomka . The team is tumbling in the Bundesliga, with a record number of draws, and a laughable defeat against Cottbus. Kevin Kuranyi, who is the only player in Schalke’s squad who can score goals, even though he needs ten attempts every time, is out injured. Chelsea had a good run in the Premier League. The stage was set for a convincing away victory for Chelsea. Instead Schalke controlled the game and created a couple of good chances. So, in a way, this is a good result for Schalke, but in reality they really should have won it. But then again, there is nobody on this squad, who can score goals. I have to give Chelsea some credit for their kit-choice. Coming to Schalke with what looks like a mid-nineties Borussia Dortmund jersey takes some guts. Maybe this even helped motivate Schalke a bit more.

Amazingly Rosenborg won their away match against Valencia 2-0. Timo Hildebrand, whom I had just praised for his good performance against Mallorca, apparently blundered to give Rosenborg the crucial second goal. This sets up an exciting final for this group.

Next matchday:

if Valencia beat Schalke and Chelsea beat Rosenborg then

1. Chelsea 11pts
2. Rosenborg 7pts
3. Valencia 6pts
4. Schalke 4pts

Final matchday:

if Schalke beats Rosenborg and Chelsea draw Valencia then

1. Chelsea 12pts
2. ??????

This would leave Schalke, Valencia and Rosenborg with 7pts each. The better head-to-head would decide in this case but: Schalke has the better head-to-head against Rosenborg so should be placed before them, Valencia has the better head-to-head against Schalke so should be placed before them, but Rosenborg has the better head-to-head against Valencia and should be placed before them. Please explain.

Lazio 2-1 Bremen

Here’s the negative surprise. Something that is a staple feature of this season’s Champions League for at least one Bundesliga club each matchday. Werder Bremen took the day off and lost against a Lazio side, who currently spent their time in the lower regions of Serie A and have a proper injury crisis, that would do Bremen proud. Anyway, after the abysmal second half against Olympiacos at home, we should never write off a negative performance by Werder this Champions League season. Oddly enough Bremen is still alive in this group, but anything less than two victories in their last two games and they almost certainly won’t make it. A victory and a draw could be enough for the UEFA Cup spot, otherwise they can focus on the Bundesliga next year, just like Stuttgart.

Bremen hit the self-destruct button though. Diego saw a red card in overtime tonight. That means, no Frings (until next year) and no Diego against Real Madrid…