Guide to the Bundesliga’s Season Finale

Three matchdays to go and there is still pretty much everything to play for at the top and the bottom of the table. A welcome change to last season, where we had to make do with a little tussle for the UEFA Cup and Intertoto spots and Nuremberg putting up not much of a fight to avoid the drop. This time around it could all go down to the final matchday. All the excitement could be gone by Saturday as well though, so I better be quick to finish this preview, before the hype surrounding the “best ever Bundesliga finale” evaporates…

1. VfL Wolfsburg (60pts / +27gd)
Waiting for the title since: 1945, when the club was founded
Run-in: Dortmund (H), Hannover (A), Bremen (H)
The Dortmund game may decide whether Wolfsburg can win their first ever Bundesliga title or not. Wolfsburg are unbeaten at home, while Dortmund have hardly been beaten all season. There could be a draw in this one. The away game against Hannover is a Niedersachsen Derby, but the fact that this is the first time you learned about this derby, tells you that it’s probably not big enough for Hannover to go all out and ruin Wolfsburg’s title chances. Though, you never know – maybe this game could be the start of a long and passionate fiendish rivalry. Bremen will return from either a UEFA Cup triumph or defeat and have another cup final coming up. You have a feeling that spoiling Wolfsburg’s party is not a top priority for them.

2. Bayern Munich (60pts / +25gd)
Waiting for the title for: 12 long, long months
Run-in: Leverkusen (H), Hoffenheim (A), Stuttgart (H)
In the past, Leverkusen always travelled to the Allianz Arena ambitious and full of confidence and left with deflated egos and zero points. The only reason why it could be different this time around is because Leverkusen no longer have any ambitions or confidence. The away game against Hoffenheim could pose a more realistic threat for Bayern though. Hoffenheim, despite their poor run of form, seem motivated to end the season on a high and take revenge for the defeat in Munich last year. They will of course still miss Ibisevic and his replacement Boubacar Sanogo is someone who can turn the game in Bayern’s favor and not the other way round. The game against Stuttgart could turn out be a real showdown and title decider, presuming Bayern and Stuttgart take six points from their previous two matches and I wouldn’t make any predictions in this case.

3. Hertha Berlin (59pts / +10gd)
Waiting for the title since: 1931
Run-in: Cologne (A), Schalke (H), Karlsruhe (A)
Cologne are in safe waters and miss several key players. While Hertha had problems dominating and beating sides from the bottom of the table, I still can’t see anything but three points for Berlin here. The game against Schalke could go either way. Schalke may no longer have anything to play for, but are the kind of side which isn’t vulnerable to Hertha’s counter attacks and they had very little trouble beating Hertha last year. If Hertha beat Schalke they can win the title. The game against Karlsruhe could be a serious test for the fan-friendship between the two clubs – unless Karlsruhe are already confirmed to go down.

4. VfB Stuttgart (58pts / +18gd)
Waiting for the title since: 2007
Run-in: Schalke (A), Cottbus (H), Bayern (A)
The games against Schalke and Cottbus could be tricky, which is my way of saying that I expect six points for Stuttgart but don’t really trust them yet, despite their demolition of Wolfsburg. The best result Stuttgart could get in Munich in recent years was a draw, but then again there were so many clubs, coaches and players who overcame their Bayern jinx this season, that Stuttgart could just as well go there and beat them for an even unlikelier title win than in 2007.

5. Borussia Dortmund (55pts / +20gd)
Waiting for the title since: 2002
Run-in: Wolfsburg (A), Bielefeld (H), Mönchengladbach (A)
With Hamburg hot on their heels and with the easier run-in, Dortmund can’t really afford to lose or draw any of their remaining fixtures. The team is on a club record winning streak, though I have doubts whether they’ll be the first to beat Wolfsburg in Wolfsburg this season. Two relegation threatened sides might put up quite a fight, especially Bielefeld are difficult to play, but Dortmund look too strong to drop any points against them.

6. Hamburger SV (55 pts / 0gd)
Waiting for the title since: 1982
Run-in: Bochum (H), Cologne (H), Frankfurt (A)
You’ve got to feel sorry for Martin Jol’s men. In a bit over two and a half weeks their fierce rivals Werder Bremen turned an excellent season into a bitterly disappointing one. Their chances to win the title are purely mathematical and their chances to play in Europe at all next season could rely on the outcome of the Wolfsburg – Dortmund match. The team’s remaining fixtures all look very easy on paper so it’s not too bold to predict a full nine points here. The psychological blow of the Nothern Derby disaster could stand in their way though.

To round off this post, here’s quick look at the snail race at the bottom of the table:

14. VfL Bochum (28pts / -16gd)
In the Bundesliga since: 2006
Run-in: Hamburg (A), Frankfurt (H), Cologne (A)
I expected Bochum to have booked the tickets for another season of Bundesliga football a while ago. Marcel Koller’s team played some good football and more importantly got results to show for it, different to the first half of the season. With games against Frankfurt and Cologne coming up, I still expect them to convert one of those two matchballs…

15. Borussia Mönchengladbach (27pts / -19gd)
In the Bundesliga since: 2008
Run-in: Cottbus (A), Leverkusen (A), Dortmund (H)
I think Mönchengladbach have to win in Cottbus to have a chance to stay in the league. Leverkusen will be motivated to end their Düsseldorf adventure with one damn home win, so I don’t think Gladbach can expect any gifts from them there unfortunately. Dortmund will most probably be fighting for the Europa League spots (or even more…) and look too strong for Gladbach. I personally hope they stay in the league though, and maybe that’s why I’m so pessimistic.

16. Arminia Bielefeld (27pts / -19gd)
In the Bundesliga since: 2004
Run-in: Hoffenheim (H), Dortmund (A), Hannover (H)
Hoffenheim and Hannover at home will certainly be the key games for Bielefeld. Artur Wichniarek could be the key player in these games after his return from injury. And after all, how can something get relegated which doesn’t even exist?

17. Energie Cottbus (27pts / -27gd)
In the Bundesliga since: 2006
Run-in: Mönchengladbach (H), Stuttgart (A), Leverkusen (H)
With home games against Mönchengladbach and Leverkusen, Cottbus have it all in their own hands. I’m a bit unsure about what Leverkusen side will show up. They might be determined to get a positive result as a confidence boost ahead of the cup final.

18. Karlsruher SC (23pts / -29gd)
In the Bundesliga since: 2007
Run-in: Hannover (H), Bremen (A), Berlin (H)
There is a little glimmer of hope left for Karlsruhe to at least make it to the relegation play-offs. This glimmer stands in stark contrast to their poor performance against Dortmund though. Hannover and Bremen no longer have anything to play for and maybe Karlsruhe are just another freak goal away from an unlikely great escape.

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Category: Data